Although not wanting to be seen as another armchair analyst commenting on the recent 'Political Tsunami', I would like to 'analyse the analysis of these analysts'.
Most of them seems to be savoring the moment of change and harping on how the Malaysian voters has changed, noting that the BN won 90% of the seats in 2004. Many has gone on to say they the voting public has matured and this includes some foreign analyst. Most of these analysts are columnist in mainstream newspapers whose predictions before the polls were no where near the actual result.
Before the polls, these analysts were busy writing artciles after articles on the impending polls claiming to know the pulse and sentiments on the ground. Not surprisingly,being armchair analyst, none openly admitted that they were wrong after the polls.
I was quite flabbergasted with their analysis after the polls. These armchair analysts appears to have been looking just at the BN's lost of two-third majority as well as loss of five states to Pakatan Rakyat. (or in Mahathir words Pakatan equals to 'conspiracy') (PR).
Further analysis reveals that it is just the opposite. It was a mere knee jerk reaction by people in many constituencies who chose to reject anything that is BN. How do we explain that the Amateur Cameraman (cannot call him a cinematographer, can we), who never even been residing in the country until recently and was unknown before the 'correct, correct, correct.. Blockbuster video came to the light, gets voted in.
Rakyat did not give a hood to who the candidate was and simply voted in many unknowns and many of those who did not really have a good track record or experience. It was the same as before they say that BN can win seats by placing a donkey as candidate. Only that BN is at the receiving end now.
And you call this political maturity? Even if PR places the 'Lingam' video-cam, it would have still won and these analysts would have been still singing the same tune.
Most analysts also commented that Rakyat has matured enough to vote across racial lines. We have heard of Indians hoisting PAS flags etc. These are again act of emotional and frustrated rakyat.
If this was really the case, then the Perak coalition and the royalty should have appointed a DAP Man as their Menteri Besar. What was stopping them, the constitution? The state constitution has a clause which allows Sultan to use his discretion to appoint a non-malay Menteri Besar. Yet neither the Pakatan Rakyat nor the real rakyat pushed for this. There were noises on ‘Ketuanan Melayu’, NEP heard while the Pakatan Rakyat was consulting the Regent Of Perak on Menteri Besar appointment.
If the rakyat are really matured as claimed by some analyst, we should not only be prepared to change governments but also change the racially and religiously influenced composition of the state government and other institutions.
The Perak Royalty, to their credit, has been quite vocal in calling for reforms in many areas such as Judiciary but are they prepared to reform their race based constitution, at their own backyard?
As for Pakatan Rakyat coalition, the state exco (Cabinet) seats resemble the race based BN formula in terms of providing EXCO seats along racial lines. I thought the Pakatan Rakyat were championing equal opportunity for everyone and merit based assessment. Here, their assessment has been influenced by political consideration and race. Not equality or merit, they are merely empty talk.
Pakatan Rakyat's start (EXCO composition) in all five states itself are race based, yet they talk about merit, justice, equality and opportunity for all.
The fact is we are nowhere near some of the more matured democracies. The Rakyat is simply emotional and their frustration showed at the polls. When they become frustrated again, they will vote BN in again, regardless of the candidate's caliber or if a donkey or videocam is the candidate.
My verdict is, it's the BN's arrogance, complacency, UMNO's big brother attitude and PM Abdullah's weak leadership that resulted in the Political Tsunami, not because of Pakatan Rakyat's political might or rakyat's so called maturity. Believe me, the time when people vote across racial lines will take ages to change, we can only hope that it happens in our lifetime.